Traffic accidents in Ecuador (2020–2024): an econometric analysis
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54580/R0801.12Keywords:
Road accident rates, econometric determinants, mechanical failures, driver behaviorAbstract
In Ecuador, road accident rates have experienced sustained growth during the 2020–2024 period, reflecting a combination of risks associated both with driver behavior and the mechanical conditions of the vehicle fleet. In this context, the objective of this research was to econometrically analyze the determinants of traffic accidents in Ecuador during the 2020–2024 period using a multiple linear regression model. To address this, the study implemented a quantitative–explanatory and non-experimental investigation using a multiple linear regression model based on official INEC data. The variables incorporated into the model included speeding violations, alcohol and drug consumption, driver recklessness, and mechanical failures. In addition, the assumptions of the model were tested using normality, heteroscedasticity, autocorrelation, multicollinearity, and functional specification tests. The results confirm a high explanatory power, as well as positive and significant coefficients for all variables, where mechanical damages stand out as the determinant with the largest marginal impact, followed by alcohol/drug use, speeding, and recklessness. Although the model meets most assumptions, the RESET test suggests the possible omission of variables related to infrastructure or spatial effects. Altogether, this confirms that accident rates indeed respond to both human and structural factors, reinforcing the need to strengthen mechanical inspections, road safety education, and preventive strategies.
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